You have the better board, more checkers back and an advanced anchor. These factors should be pointing you towards making a bold play. They are some of the more important factors of Paul Magriel’s safe versus bold criteria.
Your 4 point would be a nice point to have, so you might consider slotting it 13/4:
This is a bold play but you have stripped your midpoint and left your 6 point stacked.
Black will hit you with any 3, as well as 61. That is 13 shots or 36% of the time. You also leave 2 blots.
If you are missed and Black does not escape, you still might not cover the blot next roll.
This looks like too much risk for too little return.
You would like to Unstack your 6 point, and you have the stronger board so why not attack with 6/1* 13/9:
You will be hit with any 1, as well as 62, 54 and 44. That is 16 rolls or 44% of the time – this is just too many rolls. You also leave 3 blots.
The only awkward hitting roll that Black has is 41. Can you find a move that gives Black more awkward hitting rolls?
Consider 13/8 6/2:
This only leaves 11 hitting rolls, 1 blot and it unstacks your 6 point. As an added bonus, your 8 point is made. Your 8 point may not seem important, but it gives you 2 checkers in the zone that can be used to cover the blot on your 2 point and aid in any future attack.
When you look at Blacks hitting rolls, you will notice that 61, 41 and 31 are very awkward for Black. Would Black actually hit with 61, 41 and 31?
Black should not even hit with 61, but should instead make their 5 point with 11/5 6/5. This unstacks there 6 point and gets rid of the gap in front of Whites anchor.
Black should still hit with 41, but the best move 24/23* 6/2, leaves a direct return shot from the bar. The advantage of 6/2 is that it unstacks Blacks 6 point.
Black should not even hit with 31, but should instead make their 5 point with 8/5 6/5. This unstacks there 6 point and gets rid of the gap in front of Whites anchor.
So in the original position, instead of being hit with 11 rolls, we should only correctly be hit with 7 rolls after the correct 13/8 6/2.
When you are considering how many rolls your opponent will hit with, ask yourself is it correct for my opponent to hit here?